Little relief is expected for farmers, ranchers, and reservoirs in the Western United States this winter, as extreme drought is expected to persist.
This is according to NOAA forecasters, who predict “widespread extreme drought to persist across much of the West,” according to Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA issued a forecast for winter conditions across the United States on Thursday.
“We’re in our third year of this extreme drought for much of the Western United States,” said Brad Pugh, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s operational drought lead. “It harms agriculture, increases the risk of wildfires, and impacts tourism.”
Drought conditions are at their worst in Central California, where NOAA predicts warmer temperatures and less precipitation than usual throughout the winter. The same forecast holds for much of the South, including the Gulf Coast.
Drought conditions are expected to affect the middle and lower Mississippi River valleys this winter. Low water levels have already caused barges to become stuck in the mud and disrupted shipping and recreational boating.
Drought conditions have already drained reservoirs vital to the drinking water supply, compelled restrictions on Colorado River water use, and jeopardized farmers’ livelihoods.
NOAA forecasts a third consecutive winter of La Nia, an atmospheric pattern influencing the likelihood of precipitation. It is only the third time in history that three seasons of La Nia have occurred.
According to new research, climate change may influence circulation in a way that favours La Nia in the short term.
The pattern could result in a wet, cold winter at higher latitudes.
NOAA predicts below-normal temperatures and wet conditions in the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes, potentially resulting in more snow in both regions. This should help alleviate the drought in those areas.
The Northern Rockies and the Ohio Valley are expected to receive more rain than usual.
The Atlantic coast can expect a warmer winter if NOAA’s predictions are correct. However, the agency’s seasonal forecasts are based on probabilities and are not always accurate predictors of what will happen this winter.
